2020 has been a whirlwind of a year- the Coronavirus Pandemic, Black Lives Matter Movement, West Coast fires, and now the Presidential election. Throughout this crazy year, the one thing that has remained consistent is the housing market. The Presidential election is just around the corner, so how will this impact the Real Estate Market?
To better predict this year’s market, we need to analyze past trends during election years. BTIG, a research and analysis company, drafted a report titled One House, Two House, Red House, Blue House. BTIG revealed that during non-presidential years there is a -9.8% decrease in November. This is normal housing behavior because there is usually a market slowdown in fall and winter. However, they also noted that during the presidential election years, the drop increases to -15%.
BTIG explains why the Market drops by almost 5% during Presidential years, “This may indicate that potential homebuyers may become more cautious in the face of national election uncertainty.” However, they go on to say that the market will return to normal as buyers become more comfortable, “History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November. In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle. This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year.”
Despite who our next president will be, we know that the Real Estate Market will always return back to normal. Mortgage rates are still at an all-time low, so this year’s typical housing decrease is being predicted to remain strong in the fall and winter.